DEEP CREDIT RISK
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Zoom Training Details:

Day 1:
Duration
Topic
80 min
Current Issues in Credit Risk and LGD Engineering
  • Current issues in credit risk and COVID-19 challenges
  • Introduction into Python
  • Role of LGD and EAD in credit loss modeling
  • Computing observed LGD
  • LGD discount rates
  • Resolution bias
20 min
Break
80 min
Loss Given Default (LGD) Concepts
  • Statistical and machine learning thinking
  • Workflow in machine learning
  • Differences between loss and default modeling
  • Train-test validation split
  • Standardisation and scaling
  • Bias-variance trade-off
  • Cross-validation
  • Hyper-parameters and tuning
  • Linear, fractional logit & beta regressions
  • Feature selection, choce of model and interpretation for LGD
  • PD-LGD models
Day 2:
Duration
Topic
80 min
Exposure Concepts
  • Conversion measures at default and undistressed period
  • Credit lines & flexible repayment schedules
  • Exposures at default
Hands-on Excercises in Python: Visualisation and Reporting
  • Communication with non-Python users
  • Presentations in Jupyter Notebook and reveal.js
  • Building user interfaces for recovery management
  • Model deployment in the cloud
20 min
Break
80 min
Machine Learning Validation
  • Validation framework and other continuous variables
  • Backtesting LGDs: discrimination, calibration, stability
  • Adapt accuracy, ROC curves, AUC for LGD and other continuous variables
  • Brier score
  • R^2
  • Calibration curve and reliability diagram
  • Portfolio dependence
Day 3:
Duration
Topic
80 min
Current expected credit losses (CECL) for US GAAP and IFRS 9
  • Including LGD and EAD to loan loss provisioning
  • 12-month expected loss vs. lifetime expected loss
  • Macroeconomic forecasts
  • Multi-period forecasts based on the macroeconomy and borrower lifecycles
  • Prediction of lifetime expected losses
  • Significant increase in credit risk (SICR)
  • Cost of debt and capital
  • Competitive and sustainable loan pricing
20 min
Break
80 min
Supervised Machine Learning for LGDs
  • Regression
  • K Nearest Neighbours
  • Decision Trees
  • Bagging and Boosting
Day 4:
Duration
Topic
80 min
Unexpected Credit Losses
  • Downturn LGD and EAD for Basel calibrations and stress-testing
  • Correlation modelling
  • Asymptotic Single Risk Factor Model
  • Numerical integration to generate loss distributions
  • Simulation to generate loss distributions
  • Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall
20 min
Break
80 min
Supervised Machine Learning for LGDs
  • Neural Networks
  • Network architecture and depth
  • Deep learning
  • Do it like Google: Introduction into Keras/Tenserflow
  • Support Vector Regressions

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  • WELCOME
    • CONTENTS
    • START Python
    • START R
    • FEATURED
  • DATA & CODE
  • TRAINING
    • ONLINE
    • ZOOM MASTERCLASS
    • IN HOUSE
    • UNI
  • PAPERS
  • CONTACT
  • 中文